Markets Steady Before CPI: NFIB Beats, Oil Spikes, Earnings Loom (Aug 11, 2026)

Markets Steady Before CPI: NFIB Beats, Oil Spikes, Earnings Loom

Stocks slipped modestly Monday as a nearly 5% surge in WTI crude on stalled Strait of Hormuz talks revived inflation jitters just two days ahead of the July CPI print. Futures are little changed to slightly higher this morning after a strong NFIB Small Business Optimism beat, but with the Fed's September rate odds still hinging on inflation data, today is mostly a positioning day ahead of tomorrow's real catalyst.

Market Setup

Yesterday's Close

Dealer Gamma: Key Levels

SPY (spot ~773) shows a call wall at 775 and a secondary call wall at 780, with a put wall at 770 and a secondary put wall at 700. QQQ (spot ~716) shows a call wall at 730 (then 735) and a put wall at 700 (then 660). Call walls mark strikes where dealer positioning may slow rallies; put walls mark strikes where hedging flows may cushion dips. These are positioning estimates, not guarantees.

Today's Calendar

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July came in at 99.8, well above the 97.5 consensus and the prior 97.4 — a broad-based improvement led by hiring plans. No Fed speakers are scheduled today. The week's real catalyst is tomorrow's CPI print at 8:30 AM ET.

Notable Earnings

Already reported: Datadog (DDOG) beat and raised guidance on August 6 but sank 19% on a disclosed AI-customer usage cut; shares are rebounding roughly 11.5% pre-market today. Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat on revenue but fell about 9% pre-market on a flagged demand-supply mismatch.

Still ahead before the open: Cardinal Health, Sea Limited, On Holding, and Tencent Music all report before today's bell.

After the close: CoreWeave (options-implied move ±11.1%), Super Micro Computer (±11.5%), Lumentum (±9.9%) and Cava Group (±11.0%) headline tonight's post-close slate.

Key Themes

1. Rate-hike odds are creeping back up, not down. Despite a weak July jobs report, oil's surge has markets pricing roughly a 44% chance of a September hike, down from 67% a week ago but still elevated.
2. Oil is the macro wildcard. WTI jumped nearly 5% Monday and remains elevated near $83-85 as Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz talks stall.
3. Dealer gamma is pinning both major ETFs into a tight range ahead of CPI, per the levels above.
4. A loaded post-close earnings slate from CoreWeave, Super Micro, Lumentum and Cava carries double-digit implied moves.
5. Datadog's whipsaw is a cautionary tale on AI-customer concentration risk heading into tonight's cloud and AI infrastructure reports.

Notable Options Flow

Aggressive ask-side call buying showed up in Powell Industries ($220 calls, ~$1.24M) and gold ETF GLD ($420 calls, ~$1.06M in repeated sweeps), while bearish put flow hit SanDisk ahead of an earnings reaction. Longer-dated bullish call buying also surfaced in SPY, Microsoft, and Micron.

What to Watch

Tomorrow's CPI print is the single biggest catalyst of the week and will likely determine whether the recent oil-driven rate-hike repricing sticks or fades. Tonight's earnings from CoreWeave and Super Micro will be watched closely for any echo of Datadog's AI-customer concentration warning, given how central hyperscaler and AI-infrastructure demand has become to market sentiment. Energy sector strength tied to the Strait of Hormuz standoff also bears watching as a persistent inflation risk.

Sign-Off

That's the setup heading into the bell. Stay nimble into CPI — the tape has been calm, but the ingredients for a range break are all on the table.